NEWS

The market in 2024 will continue to focus on AI-related topics, with suppliers gradually introducing high-end AI chips.

As computing speeds improve, TrendForce reports that in 2024, the average memory capacity per device for DRAM and NAND Flash will increase across various AI-driven applications, such as smartphones, servers, and laptops. The server segment is expected to see the highest growth, with the average capacity of Server DRAM per device projected to grow by 17.3% year-on-year, while Enterprise SSDs are estimated to grow by 13.2% year-on-year.

Looking at smartphones, since chip manufacturers are mainly focused on improving computational performance and have not yet launched practical AI applications, the related buzz remains limited. In 2023, memory prices plummeted rapidly due to an oversupply in the market, and this price decline boosted the average DRAM capacity per smartphone by 17.5% year-on-year, while the average NAND Flash capacity increased by 19.2%. These capacity levels are now able to meet user demands. Therefore, in 2024, with no new applications expected, the annual growth rate of average DRAM and NAND Flash capacities per smartphone is forecast to slow down to 11% and 9.3%, respectively.

In the server segment, demand for AI servers continues to grow, and high-end AI chips like NVIDIA's H200/B100, AMD's MI350, and custom ASICs from cloud service providers (CSPs) are being gradually launched or entering mass production. However, since Training AI Servers are currently the market mainstream, and they primarily adopt DRAM products that facilitate high-speed computing, DRAM's average capacity per server is expected to grow faster than NAND Flash. Server DRAM is projected to see a 17.3% year-on-year growth, while Enterprise SSD is estimated to grow by around 13.2%.

For laptops, Microsoft’s AI PC specification requires a CPU performance of 40 TOPS or more. Currently, the Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite, AMD Ryzen 8000 series (Strix Point), and Intel's Lunar Lake meet this specification, but laptops with these CPUs are not expected to be mass-produced until the second half of this year. As a result, their impact on memory capacity growth will be limited in 2024. AI PC hardware standards mainly call for DRAM capacity to be increased to 16GB, but there is no specific requirement for SSDs to be upgraded to 1TB. As a result, the average DRAM capacity per laptop is expected to grow by 12.4% year-on-year, with more significant growth expected in 2025 as AI PC production scales up. Meanwhile, although the average Client SSD capacity per laptop is expected to increase, the sharp rise in NAND Flash prices is expected to limit the year-on-year growth rate to just 9.7%.